|
Yes you are right
& What the financial commentators are saying ?
Yes we are
where Peter from Bell Potter says we are in the cycle.
Peter
showed us on a template during his lunchtime address on Tuesday that we are in
the ‘year of volatility’ that is
normal.
So it is
normal to be down by 13% during the 2nd year after governments bails
out the banks.
Peter
expects at least 2 of the PIIGS to default as ‘Europe is sad & bad’.
However if PIG do fall then at most 3% of Europe wealth. He commented that OECD
government bonds are greater that the OECD net wealth & that it takes 5 to
14 years for government deficits to be reduced to sustainable levels.
Peter is
optimistic about China prospects as 36 million more units & infrastructure
is being built in Tier 2, 3 cities.
In
Australia rates will go up to 5.75% in a year’s time & hence exchange rates
will stay above parity for longer.
He observed
that overseas fund managers consider the government ‘ hopeless’ & hence are repatriating their funds out. This is
another reason why equity markets have weakened. Thanks again ‘poll dancers’.
After
August 2012 Peter suggests as Peter S from Sky Business says it is ‘off to the races’ with a gain of 40%.
Then we
have Porter from The USA forecasting ‘the end of America’.
He is
particularly negative. We have been following him for 3 years & he has made
the big calls correctly. He particularly blames big government & their
causes of most of the volatility. He suggests this is caused by paper money,
the explosion of debt, the military & where losses e.g. GFC are socialised
but the profits are private.
Porter is
placing all his core shares on hold & has some ‘shorts’ on financials & even more
trouble on the US real estate market. He calls this the ‘Great Correction’.
Then we
have Steve who have subscribed to for 4 years.
Although he would prefer to be
optimistic he comments that ‘the trend is down’ & markets are ‘wobbly’.
Hence
again his core stocks are on hold & he is only adding gold at present as are the above two.
Where else do the big players park their money?
Then
we read this morning from Doug who summarises it all with ‘we are not out of the woods yet’. It all depends on the US
reporting season & if negative then ‘it
will in effect serve as a great low-risk buying opportunity when the dust
settles’.
So you are right
as ‘Australian retail cash deposits are
at a record high of $560 billion, an 8.9% increase for the year to March and
1.5% increase for the quarter to March, according to the latest CoreData Australian
Cash report.
Credit unions,
interestingly enough, have been growing at an above system rate of 10.1% for
the year to March and 1.6% for the quarter to March 201’.
What the commentators say doesn’t necessarily help you.
Leaving funds in cash forever doesn’t achieve that 1,000,000 very fast.
We all have the challenges of wanting or needing to be
independent of government as at present they are all broke or on the path to
being so.
The Common thread of all this is ‘Sovereign risk’ & with
500+billion in government bonds
Australia is on the slippery slope.
We all have the challenges of becoming a millionaire with a
million in capital outside the house, less taxx & less debt.
‘The total number of Australian HNWIs has increased from 173,600 in 2009
to 192,900 in 2010, an increase of 11.1 per cent.
Australia has now the ninth
largest population of millionaires out of the 71 countries surveyed and their
total wealth over the period increased by 12.1 per cent to US$582.0 billion.’
It’s time to join the club.
It also means good health & from what we have observed
recently some better estate planning.
Here to help you & welcome to call on 07 3848 1088 or reply
John McAuliffe
|
